I don't have a COVID tag, in fact I resist having one, so this one takes "music performance." I just heard, via Scott Adams, that Rasmussen Reports is saying that two-thirds of Americans over 65 have been vaccinated. If that's true, then maybe we will have herd immunity by the summer. Which should me that we should be able to return to concert life soon after. Salzburg Festival? Well, maybe.
I have been saying that the scars this pandemic is leaving on the music world are deep and long-lasting and I see no reason to alter that observation, but perhaps by this summer we can start the long road back. Most musicians have not been giving concerts, not even streaming ones, for over a year and even if they have kept up their technique, they will still be rusty. Also, I have seen figures a while back saying that 30% of musicians have simply left the profession. By now it could be a lot more. 50%? Who knows?
The front rank players will come back strong, but the second rank and lower ones I worry about. They may have simply lost the urge to perform after having it denied for so long. Plus, even when normal concerts return I suspect there will be far fewer venues available. We will see, but I predict a long road back.
Here is a lieder recital streamed from Wigmore Hall yesterday with Carolyn Sampson and Joseph Middleton. Wigmore has been one of the most productive venues during these dark days. This is a concert for Spring:
Re: Salzburg and the revival of European concert life, the vaccination rollout in Europe are going much more slowly than in the USA with shortages. Plus, most European governments are being guided by much more cautious scientific advisors that say that only falling case numbers should matter, not falling mortality among the most vulnerable demographic. For example, Romania’s top health official calling the shots on the response to COVID says that only by late autumn or winter can non-social-distanced events resume, and he has been saying this repeatedly with the express aim of dissuading people from getting their hopes up after live concerts and theatre. There is even a group of influential public-health experts at the Polish Academy of Sciences that has been calling for maintaining social distancing into the coming years, even post-COVID so that the next epidemic can be prevented from starting in the first place.
ReplyDeleteSo, my prediction is that most European classical music in 2021 will continue mainly as streamed concerts, with a minuscule or no live audience. And we can forget about the sort of big global festivals where people came from outside the EU, since borders are likely to remain closed until the autumn at least.
I'm rather skeptical of these reported numbers as I know from people in several US states that they are just in the process of vaccinating healthcare personnel. So I find it puzzling that 2/3 of over 65 are reported vaccinated but healthcare workers are just now being vaccinated. Nobody I know over 65 has been vaccinated either FWIW. Maybe they mean 2/3 of nursing home patients.
ReplyDeleteAs for the long road back there cannot be a Long road back. Time is running out. Even I was astonished at the ease with which the Met and KC and probably others have jettisoned their musicians without any perceptible outcry. While Europe does indeed have a stronger situation due to wider social support, even that is shrinking at the local level according to some EU music fans I know.
Now I'm more depressed! But slightly relieved that I can save some money this summer. AGH!
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